Statistical Analysis of Military
and Civilian Navigation Error Data Services
Ted Driver, Analytical Graphics Incorporated
Ted Driver
is the Senior Navigation Engineer at Analytical Graphics Inc. Ted has worked on the Navigation Tool Kit for
three years, having previously been the technical lead for the Navigation Tool
Kit at Overlook Systems Technologies. He
has led the engineering team in developing the navigation algorithms and data
stream definitions and is currently working on statistical prediction models
for GPS accuracy. He was previously the
senior
Objective:
Determine a statistical
difference in navigation accuracy, if any exists, between data provided by a
Military Error Data Service and Civilian Error Data Service.
Methodology:
With the advent of both
civilian and military real-time GPS satellite ephemeris and clock correction
streams into the GPS user community, the question naturally arises: Which is
better? The Jet Propulsion Laboratory
and Navcom Technologies both have civilian data streams available to the public
and the military is in the process of standing up the GPS Information Service
(GPSIS) emanating from the GPS Operations Center (GPSOC). While civilian users only have civilian
sources from which to choose, military users will have the capability to choose
between the civilian data service and the military data service. To aid in making that choice, this paper will
define a decision making criteria for choosing one service over another. The analysis will search for statistical
significance in the differences in computed accuracy derived from the two
services. The accuracy will be
calculated as Signal-In-Space (SIS) using the Navigation Tool Kit as a
Navigation Error modeling and analysis tool.
Using a Paired Data Analysis
(PDA) technique, differences in accuracy for a specific location will be
analyzed. An initial check is made of
the normality of the differences between the accuracies derived from the two
data sets and then hypothesis testing is used to test the value of the
differences. The null hypothesis is that
there is no difference between the accuracies derived from the Military Data
Stream and the Civilian Data Stream at a specified threshold level. The
alternative hypothesis is that the accuracy derived from the Military Data
Stream is better than the accuracy derived from the Civilian Data Stream for
the given threshold.
Anticipated Results:
I intend to show that either the
null hypothesis is supported or evidence is strong to reject it, using a 95%
confidence threshold.
Significance:
This comparison technique is
not unique to military and civilian error correction data; it can be applied to
other error data sources as well. The
outcome of this particular analysis however will shed light on problems
inherent in error data processing and their statistical analysis. Lastly, the results of the analysis made lead
to a better informed decision by the military, as to which data service to
choose, when the choice must be made.
Navigation
error data is becoming more prevalent lately – especially in the civilian
domain. World-wide networks of
monitoring stations send GPS measurements to processing facilities; those
facilities determine ephemeris and clock errors to a high degree of accuracy in
near real time and are made available to the public. A very important newcomer
to this field is the military. The Air
Force is in the process of creating a service to deliver navigation error data
to military users – an unparalleled accomplishment – that will benefit military
navigation planners across the globe.
The military's data is currently derived from 5 monitoring stations, but
in the near future, will include 6 NGA stations as well.
This
paper investigates the following questions – with both civilian and military
navigation error data available, is there a statistically significant
difference between them? Is one error
data stream more accurate than another for navigation planning purposes? As a military planner, with a choice of
available data, is there any reason to choose a civilian error data set over
the military error data set?
This
paper will outline a series of statistical tests for determining a quantitative
answer to these questions. First, I'll
provide a discussion of the datasets used for analysis and the data used for a
truth comparison. Then, I'll outline the
statistical tests performed on the data and the results of those tests. Finally, I'll interpret these results using
different comparison criteria; to allow the user of these two data streams to
know which stream is better to use given their specific mission criteria.
The data used to represent the civilian navigation
errors are provided by Navcom Technologies Inc.; a business partner of
Analytical Graphics Inc. (AGI). Navcom
provides an error data delivery service to customers of AGI for use in the
Navigation Tool Kit (NTK) – a tool to aid the mission planner in determining
navigation accuracy under a variety of circumstances and environments. The provided data consists of calculated GPS
satellite ephemeris and clock errors in two different types of delivery modes. In one mode, the data is posted on an FTP
site daily in an XML format and contains ephemeris and clock errors for each
healthy GPS satellite at 15 minute intervals.
This is known as the 'archive' set of files. The other mode of delivery is via the real
time service Navcom provides to AGI customers.
This data consists of ephemeris and clock errors for healthy GPS
satellites and GPS satellite subframe 1 health indications. Both are delivered at one minute
intervals. The archive data is identical
to the real time data, only the archive data is collected once every 15 minutes
and placed in the archive file for posting on the FTP site once per day. For both modes of delivery, the data is
calculated using a Kalman filtering process that takes in GPS measurements from
57 monitoring stations. The monitoring
stations track L1 carrier and C/A code as well as L2 carrier. A proprietary method is used to obtain dual
frequency error corrected measurements at these sites.
Here's an example of the data in an archive file:
<?xml
version="1.0"?>
<GPSISFILE
FILEID="PAF" SYSID="GPS" SOURCE="STARFIRE"
VERSION="2">
<CREATION
YEAR="2005" DOY="025" HR="23" MIN="45"
SEC="00" />
<REFERENCE
YEAR="2005" DOY="025" HR="23" MIN="45"
SEC="00" />
<PAF_RECORD>
<VALID YEAR="2005"
DOY="25" HR="0" MIN="0" SEC="0" />
<PAF_FIELD
SVID="1"
DATA_AVAILABLE="YES"
POS_ERROR_X="-0.953"
POS_ERROR_Y="2.492"
POS_ERROR_Z="1.094"
CLOCK_PHASE_ERROR="0.945"
VEL_ERROR_X="0.0001220703"
VEL_ERROR_Y="0.0004882812"
VEL_ERROR_Z="-0.0002441406"
CLOCK_FREQUENCY_ERROR="0.0000261937"
AGE_OF_DATA="0.000"
/>
<PAF_FIELD
SVID="2"
DATA_AVAILABLE="YES"
POS_ERROR_X="0.719"
POS_ERROR_Y="0.445"
POS_ERROR_Z="-0.078"
CLOCK_PHASE_ERROR="-0.486"
VEL_ERROR_X="0.0000000000"
VEL_ERROR_Y="0.0001220703"
VEL_ERROR_Z="-0.0001220703"
CLOCK_FREQUENCY_ERROR="0.0000065815"
AGE_OF_DATA="0.000"
/>
Note that the source of the data is the STARFIRE
network and that the position and velocity coordinates are in the Earth
centered, Earth fixed coordinate system.
The acronym 'PAF' means Performance Analysis File (as opposed to a
Prediction Support File (PSF) file used to support predictions of GPS accuracy)
and each PAF_RECORD has its own time of validity. A separate PAF_FIELD is defined for each SVID
(equivalent to PRN) with position and velocity errors and clock phase and
frequency errors for that SVID at that time.
Note that all units are in meters, the time component being scaled by
the speed of light to achieve the proper unit.
The AGE_OF_DATA field in the STARFIRE produced files will always be 0,
since the age of the navigation upload on a given satellite cannot be
determined using the navigation data stream broadcast by the satellites. In the analysis described in this paper, the
ephemeris values will be converted to the Radial, Along-Track, Cross-Track
(RAC) coordinate system. The Civilian
errors then will be referred to using the following notation:
|
Civilian Radial Error: |
|
|
Civilian Along-Track Error: |
|
|
Civilian Cross-Track Error: |
|
|
Civilian Clock Error: |
|
The data used to represent the military navigation errors
are created at the 2SOPs Master Control Station (MCS). The military data consists of the same
constituents as the civilian data – ephemeris and clock errors for each healthy
GPS satellite for a given time. The
difference here is that the military data is derived from measurements made at
five monitoring stations – using true dual frequency tracking of carrier and
code. The measurements are made using
P(Y) code instead of C/A code and are passed to the MCS Kalman filtering
process. For those familiar with the MCS
processing, the ephemeris and clock errors in the military data are the
estimated range deviations (ERDs) produced by the MCS Kalman filter.
The military data is in the same PAF file format as
the civilian data, as an example shows:
<?
xml version="1.0" standalone="no"?>
<GPSISFILE
FILEID="PAF" SYSID="GPS" SOURCE="GOCGIS"
VERSION="2">
<CREATION
YEAR="2005" DOY="052" HR="10" MIN="37"
SEC="07"/>
<REFERENCE
YEAR="2005" DOY="039" HR="00" MIN="00"
SEC="00"/>
<PAF_RECORD>
<VALID
YEAR="2005" DOY="039" HR="00" MIN="00"
SEC="00"/>
<PAF_FIELD
SVID="1"
DATA_AVAILABLE="YES"
POS_ERROR_X="0.134764909744263"
POS_ERROR_Y="-1.233568191528320"
POS_ERROR_Z="-0.173474848270416"
CLOCK_PHASE_ERROR="1.776714324951172"
VEL_ERROR_X="-0.000000448327009"
VEL_ERROR_Y="0.000000182344774"
VEL_ERROR_Z="-0.000001318738688"
CLOCK_FREQUENCY_ERROR="-0.0000243409178"
AGE_OF_DATA="735"/>
<PAF_FIELD
SVID="2"
DATA_AVAILABLE="YES"
POS_ERROR_X="0.447188258171082"
POS_ERROR_Y="0.355884671211243"
POS_ERROR_Z="0.249038577079773"
CLOCK_PHASE_ERROR="-0.255644679069519"
VEL_ERROR_X="-0.000000119867917"
VEL_ERROR_Y="-0.000000972098082"
VEL_ERROR_Z="0.000000720030691"
CLOCK_FREQUENCY_ERROR="0.00000293469481"
AGE_OF_DATA="1290"/>
Note that the source of the data is the GOSGIS (GPS
Operations Center GPS Information Service) and that there are additional digits
in the military data. The AGE_OF_DATA field in the GOCGIS produced files are
filled in, since the MCS has access to this information. In the analysis described in this paper, the
ephemeris values will also be converted to the RAC coordinate system. The military errors will be referred to using
the following notation:
|
Military Radial Error: |
|
|
Military Along-Track Error: |
|
|
Military Cross-Track Error: |
|
|
Military Clock Error: |
|
To compare the Military and Civilian errors, a truth
source is needed. Once found, both datasets
can be differenced from the truth to obtain residuals. It is upon these residuals from truth that
the statistical analysis will be performed.
Since both the civilian and military error data is
composed of ephemeris and clock errors from the broadcast ephemeris and clock
states, a good truth source would consist of the actual ephemeris and clock
states differenced from the broadcast states.
GPS satellite ephemeris and clock states are published by the National
Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) in the form of 3-day post fit SP3
files. These files are available on
their website [1]. The SP3 file format
contains each satellite's ephemeris in Earth-centered, Earth-fixed coordinates
as well as each satellite's clock state.
Each of these states are provided at 15 minute intervals, for a 24 hour
period, in a single file.
The broadcast ephemeris from each satellite is
available in RINEX2 format from a variety of sites on the World Wide Web. For this analysis, I retrieved the Global Navigation file for each day of
the analysis from the Continuously Operating Reference Station Network (CORS)
[2] operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization (NOAA). This file contains information in RINEX2
format specifically for subframes 1, 2 and 3 of the GPS Navigation Data,
broadcast by each GPS satellite. This
data consists of precise, broadcast ephemeris and clock parameters for each
satellite for a given time span. Algorithms
defined in IS-GPS-200D [3] detail the processing necessary to obtain the GPS
satellite's position and clock state at a given time.
Once the position is known from both the NGA files
and the RINEX2 files, the differencing can be done. The truth ephemeris and clock error states
are then constructed thusly:
![]()
![]()
The
suffix NGA denotes the data from the
NGA precise ephemeris file. The suffix Brdc denotes the data calculated by the
algorithms [4] in IS-GPS-200D. The true ephemeris errors will also be converted
to the RAC coordinate system and be referenced as:
|
True Radial Error: |
|
|
True Along-Track Error: |
|
|
True Cross-Track Error: |
|
|
True Clock Error: |
|
Now
that the test datasets and the truth dataset are defined, we can proceed with
the statistical tests on the data.
First, however, some background is required on the types of statistical
tests available for describing and classifying data.
There
are a variety of statistical tests that can be performed on a dataset – all
with specific reasons for their use. In
our case, we'd like to know whether one dataset is better than another – we'd
like to know which dataset is closer to truth.
The best statistical analysis for this type of situation is a hypothesis
test [5]. Generally, in hypothesis
testing one creates a null hypothesis H0, which describes a presumed
given situation, and then and alternate hypothesis Ha, (also denoted
as H1) that describes the conjecture to test the dataset
against. Hypothesis testing then
dictates that one of several types of numerical algorithms be performed on the
data with the numerical results of that test compared against standard table
values to decide whether the null hypothesis should be rejected in lieu of the
alternate hypothesis. Some types of
numerical tests that can be performed during a hypothesis experiment include
Z-testing, T-testing and Paired Data Analysis techniques. Z-testing can be performed when the data
consists of a large number of samples; the central limit theorem suggests a
minimum of 30 samples for this type of test to apply. The Z-test measures the Z-score of a
statistical variable, identical to the number of standard deviations (in a
normal distribution) from the mean value of that variable. The Z-test measures how well the differences
in two datasets match the hypothesis criteria, assuming each dataset is
independent of the other. A T-test is
typically applied when then number of samples is small (< 30). In this case a different statistical
distribution applies and the T-score is compared to a table of values derived
from the T-distribution. The T-test
also assumes that the datasets are independent of one another.
The
Paired Data Analysis technique is typically used when two samples of data are
taken from the same source, but are treated differently. The PDA technique does not assume that the
data samples are independent and it uses a modification of the T-test to derive
a T-score. In our case, both military and civilian errors are derived from
measuring the same GPS pseudoranges, thus the PDA technique is the best choice
for this analysis.
The
T-test used in the PDA technique derives a T-score using the following:

With

And
Number of statistical observations in X and Y
Once
the T-score is defined, it must be compared to standard table values at a
prescribed confidence level to determine if the hypothesis should be accepted
or rejected at that confidence level.
The table values are chosen based on the number of degrees of freedom as
well. Because I am using 113 statistical
observations, I should choose a table value based on 112 degrees of freedom,
the number of degrees of freedom for the test is one less than the number of
observations.
Another
consideration for the tests is to determine if a two-tailed or single tailed
test is needed. The radial and clock hypotheses will use a two-tailed test
because their values can be positive or negative while the accuracy hypothesis
will use a single-tailed test since navigation position error can only be
positive.
In
measuring GPS accuracy, the radial ephemeris and clock measurements are
arguably the most important metrics to study; therefore I'll concentrate my
initial analysis on those two components only.
For
the radial and clock tests, I'm stating the following null and alternate
hypotheses:
![]()
![]()
Where
![]()
The average is taken over a
single day, with N being determined by the number of available samples for a
given SV. N may change as a function of
SV and time due to data losses or planned outages. The H0 hypothesis states that
there is no statistically significant difference between the military and
civilian errors at level
.
The hypotheses are similar
for the Clock Errors:
![]()
![]()
Where
![]()
![]()
The
dataset I'm using to analyze these hypotheses consists of 113 days of
observations – each day consisting of a mean radial or clock error over 96
K-Points (15 minute segments) [6].
The
more important quantity to analyze however is user accuracy. While radial and clock errors are important
to the analyst, it is end-user accuracy that counts to a military planner.
Therefore, I'm including the following hypotheses as well:
![]()
![]()
Where
![]()
And
![]()
![]()
and
and
are the position accuracy for the ith day at the jth
K-point for the Military and Civilian datasets, respectively.
The
level in the accuracy hypothesis will quantify the importance
of Military Operational Impacts – the military planner can choose a threshold
that corresponds to the particular mission plan and make a
decision on which data service to use based on the results of the tests
outlined in this paper.
The
radial and clock errors were tested against a
value of 0. This choice will show how close the military
and civilian errors are to the truth source, including any inherent
biases. Figures 1 and 2 highlight the
radial errors in two cases; Figure 1 shows the mean radial differences from
truth for a 113 day span for PRN 22.
Figure 2 shows the same but for PRN 10 instead. It's apparent that the civilian data has a
bias in it's determination of the PRN 22 radial error component, whereas PRN 10
does not. Also note that the military
differences vary more than the civilian differences, despite the bias. This indicates that the civilian data
processing models the actual errors better than the military processing, once
the biases are taken into account.
Figures 3 and 4 show the standard deviations of the radial errors for
both PRNs, highlighting the greater variability of the military service over
the civilian service.
The
statistical test results on the radial errors are shown in Table 1. At a threshold of 0 meters, only 5 satellites
show no differences between military and civilian data services. This is mostly
due to the fact that several satellites showed biases in the civilian data stream. None of the military radial errors showed
biases from truth.
Table 1 - Initial Radial Statistical Results
|
SV PRNs |
|
Count |
|
1,4,7,27,30 |
Pass |
5 |
|
2,3,5,6,8-11,13-16,18-26,28,
29, |
Fail |
23 |

Figure 1 - PRN 22 Mean Radial Errors

Figure 2 - PRN 10 Mean Radial Errors

Figure 3 - PRN 22 Daily Radial Standard Deviation

Figure 4 - PRN 10 Daily Radial Standard Deviation
The
clock errors are shown for PRN 22 in Figure 5.
Note that the military clock errors from truth show no apparent long
term bias, while the civilian errors do appear to have a long term bias. The standard deviations of the clock errors
are shown in Figure 6. The variances of
the clock errors are almost identical between the two data services.
Table
2 shows the statistical test results for the clock errors. Here, at a threshold of 0 meters, all
satellites show that the military clock errors are better than the civilian
clock errors.
Table 2 - Initial Clock Statistical Results
|
SV PRNs |
|
Count |
|
|
Pass |
0 |
|
1-11,13-16,18-30 |
Fail |
28 |

Figure 5 - PRN 22 Mean Clock Errors

Figure 6 - Clock Daily Standard Deviations
After
discovering these biases in the civilian data streams, efforts were undertaken
to modify the civilian data stream to better match the truth data. After defining a solution, preliminary
results were generated to show how much better the civilian data service had
become. Figure 7 shows the T-score for
each SV, when compared to the Military errors at a threshold level of 0
meters. This graph indicates an
improvement in the modeling of the radial component. Bars in the graph falling within the blue
lines (95% confidence) are considered a pass, those outside the blue lines are
considered a fail. Summarized results
for the modified radial errors are included in Table 3.

Figure 7 - Preliminary Radial Statistical T-scores
Table 3 - Preliminary Radial Statistical Results
|
SV PRNs |
|
Count |
|
1-7,11,14,16,18,20-22,24,
26, 27, 30 |
Pass |
19 |
|
8-10,13,15,19,23, 25,
28, 29 |
Fail |
9 |
The clock errors were also modified based on the
initial results. Preliminary results show a significant improvement in the
clock error modeling in the civilian data service. Figure 8 shows the T-scores for the clock
error differences from the military errors.
Here, all but 2 satellites now show that there is no difference between
military and civilian data services.
Table 4 shows a summary of the results.

Figure 8 - Preliminary Clock Statistical Results
|
SV PRNs |
|
Count |
|
1-11,13,14,16,18-29 |
Pass |
26 |
|
15,30 |
Fail |
2 |
Table 4 - Preliminary Clock Statistical Results
It must be noted that these results are preliminary and
further testing will be performed to determine the exact benefit experienced as
a result of these changes. It is
expected that these changes will be in effect by October 2005.
Accuracy at a particular site is determined by
combining the line-of-sight ephemeris and clock errors and the geometry of the
satellites into a point position solution [7].
Navigation Tool Kit models this process, using PAF files as inputs, and
then calculating the navigation errors at each site the user has
specified. Many factors can affect the
magnitude of the navigation errors, including visibility to the satellites (due
to physical or electronic barriers), atmospheric conditions and receiver model
characteristics. For the accuracy
comparisons required by this study, I set up the Navigation Tool Kit to produce
Signal-In-Space accuracy results: no other effects were modeled. A single scenario was created in NTK and then
modified by changing the date and exchanging the civilian input data for the
military input data. All other
characteristics remained constant between the two scenarios. Figure 9 shows the military and civilian
navigation errors for a typical day. The
ordinate axis is in K-Points – 15 minute segments. The accuracy at the site was determined at 15
minute intervals, to coincide with the spacing of the input PAF data.

Figure 9 - Accuracy for a Typical Day
The military and civilian navigation errors for each
day were then averaged, obtaining a daily mean error. Figure 10 shows the daily
mean errors for the 113 day analysis period.
Also shown in the figure is the difference between the military and
civilian daily mean errors.

Figure 10 - Daily Mean Navigation Errors
To
perform the PDA on this set of data, the differences in errors must be normally
distributed. To test that the
differences were normally distributed, I performed a Lilliefors normality test
[8]. A normality plot is shown in Figure
11. If the data is normal, the normality
plot will show that the data falls very nicely along a straight line. The
normality plot shows notionally that the differenced data is normal and the
results of the Lilliefors test confirm that this is indeed the case, at a 99%
confidence level.

Figure 11 -
The
histogram in figure 12 shows how the daily mean accuracy values are
distributed. Also indicated is the peak
at approximately -80 centimeters.

Figure 12 - Histogram of Daily Mean Accuracy
Now that we know the differenced accuracy data is
normal, we can proceed with the statistical tests to see if our H0
accuracy hypothesis is correct.
To make this analysis pertinent to a military
planner, I'm defining several threshold (
)
levels. The military planner can then look at his or her threshold of interest
and then look at the results of the tests to know whether one service will be
better for their particular mission. To
complete the table, separate statistical tests were performed at each threshold
level and a determination of pass or fail was made based on a 95% confidence
level as prescribed by the T-test. Table
5 shows the results of those tests.
Table 5 – Military Operational Impact: Accuracy Statistical Results
|
Operational Threshold ( Signal-In-Space |
T-test |
|
|
20 Meters |
Pass |
1058.9 |
|
10 Meters |
Pass |
508.0 |
|
5 Meters |
Pass |
232.5 |
|
3 Meters |
Pass |
122.3 |
|
2 Meters |
Pass |
67.2 |
|
1 Meter |
Pass |
12.1 |
|
50 Centimeters |
Fail |
-15.4 |
In this table, if Pass is stated next to your threshold for operations, then there is
no statistically significant reason to choose one data service over the
other. There may well be other
logistical or procedural reasons to choose one service over the other, but this
analysis shows that either service will provide accuracy answers to meet your
mission plan. If Fail appears next to your threshold for operations, then there is a
statistically significant reason to choose the military service over the
civilian service. In this case, the
military service will provide better accuracy answers for your mission.
As a result of the
modifications made to the radial and clock errors on the civilian data service,
new accuracy scenarios were executed – to get some preliminary evidence one how
much the site accuracy had improved.
Again, I created identical scenarios in NTK, changing only the input
error source data – from Military to Civilian.
This time however, I used the new preliminary PAF file results for the
civilian scenarios. To make a
statistical test, I created 29 days worth of scenarios, thus making 29
statistical observations to which I could apply the Paired Data T-test. Applying the T-test with 28 degrees of
freedom, I ran the tests and came up with the results shown in Table 6. In this case, note that the Military
Operational Threshold has been tested down to 5 centimeters. The corrections applied to the civilian data
service have led to an average increase in accuracy of approximately 60
centimeters. It must be noted that these results are preliminary
and further testing will be performed to determine the exact benefit
experienced as a result of these changes.
Table 6 – Military Operational Impact: Preliminary Improved Accuracy Statistical Results
|
Operational Threshold ( Signal-In-Space |
T-test |
|
|
1 meter |
Pass |
50.0 |
|
50 centimeters |
Pass |
19.3 |
|
40 centimeters |
Pass |
13.2 |
|
30 centimeters |
Pass |
7.1 |
|
20 centimeters |
Pass |
0.9 |
|
10 centimeters |
Fail |
-5.2 |
|
5 centimeters |
Fail |
-8.3 |
Prior
to the changes made on the civilian data service, accuracy for a typical day
was as shown in Figure 13. The new graph
of accuracy for the same day is shown in Figure 14. This graph shows a marked improvement in
accuracy for that day. Figure 15 shows
the mean accuracy by day for the new service as well as the old service – a
clear distinction can be made, leading to the conclusion that the modifications
to the civilian data service will indeed improve accuracy assessments.

Figure 13 - Typical Accuracy for a Day

Figure 14 - Improved Accuracy for Same Day

Figure 15 – Improved Daily Mean Accuracy
A full statistical comparison of military and
civilian navigation error data services has not been performed before – though
a clear need for this type of comparison exists from a military point of
view. The military has the option of
choosing a navigation data error source if conditions warrant – but no way of
determining what level of service the civilian data service provides. In this paper I have not only outlined and
performed the tests necessary to judge the differences in the two services, I
have also laid out tables of Military Operational Thresholds for quick
reference to the results.
I compared first the radial and clock errors of the
two data services to a truth source derived from the NGA precise ephemeredes
and the broadcast ephemeredes for each satellite. I then compared the accuracy
calculated by the Navigation Tool Kit using the data delivered by both
services. My analysis showed that only 5
of the 28 GPS satellites analyzed had no statistically significant reason to
choose the military over the civilian data service based on radial error
alone. However, the initial clock errors
showed that there was a statistically significant reason to choose the military
data service for every satellite based on clock errors. Based on the initial results, I conferred
with Navcom to determine possible modifications that could be made to the
civilian data service. After
implementing some of the planned changes I retested the errors against the
truth data and presented the improved results.
My results show that for the military planner, an
operational signal-in-space threshold of greater than 78 centimeters would lead
them to choose either the military or civilian navigation error data service –
there is no statistically significant reason to do otherwise. Below an operational threshold of 78
centimeters, the military planner would do better to choose the military data
service. That is the case for only the
very near future however. Within the
next month or two, modifications will be put in place within the civilian
navigation error data service that will bring the level of statistical
significance to approximately 20 centimeters.
That is, with an operational threshold of 20 centimeters or greater,
there is no statistically significant reason to choose one service over the
other.
An additional consideration, based off of the data
in Figures 3 and 4, is the greater variability of the military errors over that
of the civilian errors. While this
increased variability was not enough the affect the outcome of the statistical
tests, it is cause for further study.
I'd like to thank Seth Hieronymus of Overlook Systems for providing the PAF files containing the military data for this analysis. Without that data, this analysis would not have been possible.
I'd also like to thank J.P. Genta and Jonathan Esche from Navcom Systems Technologies for helping me understand the biases in the civilian data service and for helping to determine what modifications could be made to improve the data.
[1] NGA Geospatial Sciences
Division website: earth-info.nga.mil/GandG/sathtml.
[2] CORS website: www.ngs.noaa.gov/CORS
[3] Interface Specification –
Global Positioning System – 200D, available from the US Coast Guard Navigation
Center: www.navcen.uscg.gov/gps/geninfo/IS-GPS-200D.pdf
[4] Ibid. See the calculations
in Table 20-IV and Section 20.3.3.3.3.1
[5] Devore, Jay L.: Probability
and Statistics for Engineering and the Sciences, Third Edition
[6] March 4, 2005 to June 24,
2005
[7] Parkinson,
[8] Lilliefors, H. (1967), On
the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for normality with mean and variance unknown,
Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62.